NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year Monday, following four years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has risen approximately 119% since its bear-market closing low of October 12, 2022. That session marked its lowest close since November 2020, ending at 3,577.03. By the close on Friday, the index stood at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase in 2026. The week also saw a 1.2% gain for the index.
This current cycle is the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record. Additionally, it is the seventh to have persisted for at least four years. Its 119% increase trails behind the average gain of 184% documented across the studied bull markets. The 2009-to-2020 period experienced a 401% rise, while the 1987-to-2000 surge reached 582%. These past periods remain among the most significant long-term gains in the comparison.
Historical data indicates that previous fifth-year performances have typically been positive, although results varied across individual cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their four-year mark. For those reaching a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. The analysis also shows an average maximum decline of about 14% during fifth years. These figures reflect past market cycles and do not forecast the current market’s future trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Support the Market’s Continued Rise
Corporate profitability remains a key element fueling the ongoing advance. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings had increased by 29.6% compared to the same period last year as of October 9. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25%. At the end of September, the growth estimate was 29.2%. Among 19 companies in the index that had already reported, 84% surpassed analysts’ average earnings estimates, with their combined earnings beating expectations by 4.9%.
Analysts continue to anticipate robust profit growth through the end of 2026. Projections for the fourth quarter suggest a 27.6% increase in S&P 500 earnings from a year earlier. The full-year earnings growth is estimated at 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to earnings estimates for 2026 are attributed to semiconductor and hardware firms. Research from Barclays also indicates that these companies account for roughly 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates. As a result, technology-related firms remain a dominant force in current earnings upgrades.
Interest Rate Environment and the Fifth-Year Milestone
The ongoing rally coincides with rising interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16. Officials indicated that economic activity was expanding steadily, even as inflation remained high. The September forecasts projected a median economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2026, with unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 through October 28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields continue to stay high as the stock market marks its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, and the 30-year yield was at 5.60%. Despite this, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% during that session, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite moved up by 0.6%. U.S. equities are now approaching the fifth year of growth at near-record levels, supported by strong earnings and higher borrowing costs.