LONDON / ConSynSer / – On Wednesday, October 21, oil prices experienced an uptick, with Brent crude futures increasing by $1.21 to reach $110 per barrel, as reported by Reuters. Simultaneously, US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced over $1, hitting $99 per barrel. This price movement occurred during a turbulent trading session influenced by renewed attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Investors balanced the geopolitical risks against indications that crude shipments from the Gulf are gradually rebounding. Brent has now appreciated almost 80% compared to the same period last year.
The Revolutionary Guards of Iran announced that naval mines had disrupted the movement of three tankers along routes that Tehran deems unauthorized. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency confirmed that one vessel was struck near Oman. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities located in Yanbu and at the Shaybah oilfield. The group also reported strikes on airports in Riyadh and Abha. These incidents have reignited concerns about the security of supply lines passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the trading day, prices fluctuated markedly. Brent’s gains diminished later in the session, dropping below $108 at certain points. WTI briefly touched $100, but then fell below $98. The persistent record-high freight rates in the Persian Gulf continued to underpin prices. According to Trading Economics data, Brent has gained approximately 8% over the past month. Oil prices also rebounded in late September after a four-session decline.
Gulf export flows counter supply concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing prewar levels. Tanker-tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa reveal that Middle East crude exports have increased since summer. Producers are ramping up shuttle shipments via Hormuz and engaging in ship-to-ship transfers within the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose by 7.9% in August, reaching their highest point since March. The improvement in flow has helped restrain price increases during Wednesday’s trading session.
Additionally, US inventory data played a role in influencing market movements. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories declined by just over 3 million barrels last week. In contrast, the American Petroleum Institute had indicated a larger decrease of 4.9 million barrels. US weekly crude production was around 13.27 million barrels per day, down from 13.68 million the week before. The lower inventories suggest a tighter supply situation in the world’s leading oil-consuming nation.
Focus on Russian diesel exports and recent Saudi drone attacks
Russia is preparing to send its first diesel shipment to the United States on Thursday under an agreement between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. Trump waived Russia sanctions under the Graham Act last week, paving the way for this deal. Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched extensive drone attacks targeting Russian oil infrastructure, signaling Kyiv’s efforts to prevent Moscow from expanding its diesel exports, according to Trading Economics.
On October 22, prices increased again following a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field, which resulted in two fatalities. Brent surpassed $111 per barrel, while WTI moved above $99. In response, the United States ordered some personnel and family members to evacuate its embassies in Saudi Arabia. Traders continue to closely monitor Gulf shipping activity, Saudi production levels, and Russian fuel flows to determine the next market direction.